Industry Warns Fuel Duty Rise Could Trigger Fresh Inflation Surge

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has confirmed that fuel duty will remain frozen until September 2026, before the government begins restoring the 5p-per-litre reduction and reintroducing yearly increases for the first time since 2011. The phased reversal is set to begin later in 2026, with the duty rising each April in line with RPI. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the long-running freeze has cost the Treasury an estimated £120bn in foregone revenue.

Haulage and logistics bodies have reacted with alarm, cautioning that planned rises will place additional pressure on an already stretched supply chain. Richard Smith, managing director of the Road Haulage Association, said that while extending the freeze provides temporary relief, planned increases from 2027 risk delivering a “hammer blow” to operators and driving up everyday costs for families. Logistics UK went further, describing the move as an “inflationary timebomb”, warning that higher fuel duty would amount to hundreds of millions of pounds in extra tax for businesses and intensify inflationary pressures.

Fleet organisations echoed these concerns. The Association of Fleet Professionals criticised the 2026 rise as both unexpected and unwelcome, while FairFuelUK said that although an additional year’s freeze was positive, looming duty increases could weaken consumer confidence. The Budget also unveiled a new road-pricing system for electric vehicles from April 2028, with private EVs charged 3p per mile and plug-in hybrids 1.5p, adjusted annually with CPI. Electric vans will be exempt to encourage the shift to cleaner fleets.

Industry leaders stressed that rising fuel duty and future EV taxation must be accompanied by a stable, long-term transport funding strategy. They argue that clear policy direction is essential if operators are to commit to major investment in zero-emission vehicles and charging infrastructure.

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